In Germany, divorce rates have continued to rise over the past 100 years. Only recently, this trend might have stagnated. A prominent thesis in family sociology suggests that the increase in divorce rates could be explained by a change of the role of women. This change includes increases in women’s labour market participation and improvements of their educational opportunities. The question is whether this rise in female employment and educational attainment explains the increase in divorce rates. Employment raises the earning ability of women. Therefore, employed women are more financially independent from a spouse and less bound to a malfunctioning marriage. Moreover, the negative financial impact of a divorce is less severe for employed women. Finally, it can be expected that a gainful employment of both partners leads to a more balanced division of domestic work. This might reduce the gains a male partner would get from a gendered division of domestic work and in fact destabilize the marriage.

Empirical studies
In empirical studies, Michael Wagner, Lisa Schmid (ISS) und Bernd Weiß (University Duisburg-Essen) analyse data from the German Life History Study (GLHS).  The GLHS contains observations of marriages formed between 1936 and 2005 and distinguishes six marriage cohorts (1936-1945, 1946-1955, 1956-1965, 1966-1975, 1976-1985, 1986-2005). The study is confined to West Germany since divorce rates developed differently in eastern and western Germany. The empirical analysis shows that divorce rates are higher in younger marriage cohorts. This finding is consistent with the corresponding numbers in official statistics. The educational attainment of women as well as the proportion of married women in the labour force increases from the earliest to the most recent marriage cohort observed. However, these trends cannot explain sufficiently the continuous rise in divorce rates. Neither does the increasing proportion of well-educated or employed women explain the rise of the divorce rates over the years, nor has the effect of educational attainment or labour market participation on the risk of divorce substantially changed in the observed time range.

Possible explanations for the increase in divorce rates
In their article, Wagner et al. 2015 discuss alternative explanations for the historical development of the divorce rates. It seems likely that normative barriers constraining the possibilities of a divorce have become weaker in more recent marriage cohorts. Furthermore, partners in more recent cohorts may have higher demands (to express themselves) on their spouses, which may not be met in an increasing number of marriages. In conclusion, it may be the case that a cultural instead of a sociostructural change accounts for the increase in divorce rates.

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